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President's Toronto SUN Column

TREB President's Column as it appears every Friday in the Toronto Sun's Resale Homes and Condos section.


Tightening market will mean higher prices

January 27, 2012 -- I’m excited to share with you, a recent reporting addition to TREB’s monthly housing market statistics report.

Starting with its November 2011 Market Watch publication, the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) has been publishing a new Months of Inventory (MOI) indicator.  MOI shows how long, on average*, it would take to sell all actively listed homes assuming the level of sales remained the same and no additional homes were listed.

When the MOI trends downward, the market is tightening with fewer listings from which buyers can choose.  Generally speaking, tightening market conditions translate into more competition between buyers and more upward pressure on the average selling price.  When the MOI trends upward, the opposite would be true: competition between buyers will ease and the rate of price growth will likely moderate.

The average MOI was 2.3 months over the last two years.  In the years leading up to the recession (2000 through 2007) the average MOI was 3.0 months.  In response to tighter market conditions, the average annual rate of price growth was stronger in 2010 and 2011 in comparison to much of the pre-recession period.

The low months of inventory over the past two years resulted from very strong sales relative to the number of homes listed.  In 2011 in particular, there was a shortage of listings in the GTA.  We continue to experience tight market conditions and considerable upward pressure on the average selling price.

The strong price growth we have seen over the last two years has largely been mitigated by low borrowing costs.  TREB’s affordability indicator shows that a household earning the average income in the GTA can comfortably carry a mortgage on the average priced home, based on current lending standards.

Based on the current market tightness and positive affordability picture, TREB expects the average selling price to continue growing in 2012.

I asked Jason Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis to offer more insight.

“Barring a recession in Canada, the average selling price is expected to grow by approximately four per cent in 2012 to $485,000 dollars.  This price will remain affordable based on current lending standards.  At the same time, the lower rate of price growth in comparison to 2011 points to an easing of sellers’ market conditions in the second half of this year,” said Mr. Mercer.                  

So based on the current market tightness and positive affordability picture, we expect the average selling price to continue growing in 2012.

I encourage you to take a look at the latest reports, as well as TREB’s housing charts posted on our public website www.TorontoRealEstateBoard.com. I look forward to providing more market insight in the coming months.


*The MOI is calculated by dividing the 12-month moving average of active listings by the 12-month moving average of sales.  This smooths out recurring seasonal volatility.

 

Follow TREB on www.twitter.com/TREBhome, www.Facebook.com/TorontoRealEstateBoard and www.youtube.com/TREBChannel

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Archive
Note: All links are PDF files

 2012
January 13 Expect demand to be strong in 2012
 2011
December 30 Finishing the year on a high note
December 8 It’s Time to Lend a Helping Hand
November 25 Helping those less fortunate
November 18 Building up to National Housing Day
October 28 First-Time Buyers Have Lots Of Options
October 21 Using A Realtor To Buy A New Home
October 14 Celebrating Many Years Of Service
October 7 Renovation Rebate Would Benefit Homeowners
September 30 Land Transfer Taxes Unfair to Home Buyers
September 23 Energy Rebates Should Be A Priority
September 16 Tell City Hall to Target Waste, Not Home Buyers
September 2 Realtors ride for a great cause
August 26 Strong economy sees numbers boosted
August 19 New Web Site Easy to Use
August 15 Learn to keep termites at bay
August 9

Public and Businesses See Eye-to-Eye on Municipal Finance Issues

July 22 Know when it's time to renovate
July 8 Treat first-time buyers fairly
June 17 Time To Repeal The Land Transfer Tax
June 10 Take a tour of the virtual office
June 3 Parking red tape should be streamlined
May 27 Helpful Advice Is Keystrokes Away
May 20 Taking a walk through REALTOR® QUEST
May 13 The social side of real estate
May 6 Staying on top of municipal issues
Apr. 29 Expect demand to remain strong
Apr. 22 Know what to look for in a condo
Apr. 15 Choosing between new and resale
Apr. 8 Learn to use the tools of the trade
Apr. 1 Expect demand to remain healthy
Mar. 25 City needs to cut parking red tape
Mar. 11 Select the right neighbourhood
Mar. 4 Consider investing in a fixer-upper
Feb. 25 Expect homes to remain affordable
Feb. 18 REALTORS® help clarify parking rules
Feb. 11 Learn the benefits of going online
Feb. 4 Increase the value of your resale
Jan. 28 Know the value of a REALTOR®
Jan. 21 Move is on to repeal an unfair tax
Jan. 14 Choose a home that fits your style
 2010
Dec. 17 Working Hard to Make a Difference
Nov. 19 Sorting out HST misconceptions
Nov. 12 Give more thought to going green
Nov. 5 All signs point to a healthy market
Oct. 29 Green your home and save money
Oct. 15 Keeping your best interest in mind
Oct. 8 All signs point to a healthy market
Oct. 1 Condos have become a way of life
Sept. 24 Setting the HST record straight
Sept. 17 Coming to 'Terms' with Real Estate
Sept. 10 Growing Up and going green
Sept. 3 Keeping your best interest in mind
July 16 Charity begins and ends at Home
July 9 Saving the HST with Resale Housing
July 2 Recognizing Our Volunteer Efforts
June 25 Getting to know all your options
June 18 Embracing Diversity in the GTA
May 28 REALTORS® need to know quite a lot
May 14 April transactions nearly met record
May 7 Shopping for the best deal in Town
Apr. 30 The Hidden costs of moving
Apr. 23 Knowing all the local options
Apr. 16 Many ways to cut energy costs
Apr. 2 It pays to renovate before you sell
Mar. 26 Working in your best interests
Mar. 12 Growing Tax burden is taking its toll
Mar. 5 A Professional Touch
Feb. 26 Registry links buyers to homes
Feb. 19 Mitigating the HST tax threat
Feb. 12 Expect strong start to 2010 to continue
Feb. 5 Helping those in desperate need in Haiti
Jan. 29 Having a green home provides savings and peace-of-mind
Jan. 22 REALTORS® assist with Rentals Too
Jan. 15 REALTORS® Give Back
Jan. 8 Why our REALTORS® are the envy of the world
 2009
Dec. 11 Making the jump to home ownership
Dec. 4 Your kind of town, Toronto is
Nov. 27 Emerging Neighbourhoods
Nov. 20 Mid-Month market report: The economic recovery continues
Nov. 13 There's More to us than MLS
Nov. 06 Fix-up Frenzy
Oct. 30 A Taxing Issue: Let's call on future mayor to roll back LTT
Oct. 23 Where to buy
Oct. 16 Value Added
Oct. 10 Market report
Sept. 25 NO sense of harmony
Sept. 18 Vertical City - The GTA is growing up and going green
Sept. 11 Go Site-seeing
Sept. 04 A changing shade of grey
August 28 Gateway to the World
August 21 Vertical City – Toronto is Growing Up
August 14 A new way to hunt for homes
August 7 Home Away from Home
July 31 The Canadian Dream
July 24 Move or Improve
July 17 Weathering the Storm
July 10 Mid-year market report
June 26 Making the Right Connections
June 19 Condo City
June 12 More co-op on grow ops
June 5 Investing in Real Estate
May 29 The News is Good
May 22 Ownership Housing Plays Important Role
May 15 REALTORS® Invest Time to Improve
May 8 REALTORS® take message to Ottawa
May 1 REALTOR® Education
Apr. 24 Community Spirit Alive
Apr. 17 Tech tools of the trade
Apr. 10 Public Wants Toronto Land Transfer Tax Repealed
Apr. 03 Invest In Future
Mar. 27 Agents of Change
Mar. 20 Harmonized Sales Tax Would Hurt Home Buyers
Mar. 13 Actions Speak Louder than Words on Affordable Housing
Mar. 06 Market review: 2009 so far
Feb. 20 Scholarships offered by real estate board
Feb. 13 Make Home Owners Priority of City Budget
Feb. 06 Federal Budget Helps Home Buyers and Owners
Jan. 30 January's Resale Housing Market Report
Jan. 23 TREB to Feds: More help to Homebuyers
Jan. 16 Lifestyles in the 416 and 905
 2008
Dec. 19 Be prepared for closing costs
Dec. 12 Toronto Land Transfer Tax Costs City's Economy $170 million
Dec. 5 Understand your privacy and rights
Nov. 28 Seasons of Real Estate
Nov. 21 Setting the Stage for a Sale
Nov. 14 The Ins and Outs of Inspections
Nov. 7 Outlook still good for GTA
Oct. 31 Taking Advantage of Taxes
Oct. 24 The Ins and Outs of Insurance
Oct. 17 Fighting Back Against Fraud
Oct. 10 Local Market Holds Steady
Oct. 3 Show Good Form During a Deal
Sept. 26 Using Equity to Your Advantage
Sept. 19 Choices Abound but Choose Carefully
Sept. 12 GTA Housing Market Stable
Sept. 5 Points to Ponder This Fall
Aug. 29 Don't Take This For Granted
Aug. 22 A Helping Hand
Aug. 15 A Market Report for July
Aug. 8 A Primer on Attracting Buyers
Aug. 1 Returns on RENOs
July 25 New Federal Mortgage Rules
July 18 Revitalizing the Big Smoke
July 11 Condos Changing the GTA
July 4 Feeding the City's Future
June 27 Recognizing Volunteers
June 20 Buyers, Be Aware of the New Rules
June 13 The Market Remains Healthy
June 6 Reasons to Pick a REALTOR®
May 30 The Power of MLS
May 23 Greening Up Resale Homes
May 16 A Quest for Knowledge
May 9 Lobbying Goes a Long Way
May 2 Toronto Compared
Apr. 25 Beware of Hidden Development Charges
Apr. 18 From the President
Apr. 11 Guarding Against Grow-Ops
Apr. 4

The Importance of the Budget

Mar. 28 Another Way to Invest in Real Estate
Mar. 21 Federal Budget Misses Opp
Mar. 14 Prepare Now for a Spring Move
Mar. 7 Remember to Budget for City's Budget
Feb. 29 From the President